UK WEATHER FORECAST 19/11/2018

Sunday has been bright and chilly in the UK, with easterly winds especially in England. On Monday these will cause a further decrease in temperatures everywhere, due to the continental air mass coming from the east (Figure1). Moreover, this will cause and increase in cloud cover and some showers across the UK, with some snow expected on the hills.

Figure1. Synoptic condition for Monday afternoon (Met Office).

During the night and morning some light showers are possible on the east of England and Scotland, moving westward in the afternoon. Due to the cold temperatures, snow is expected on the hills in both Scotland, England and Wales above 500-700 m (depending on the duration and intensity of the precipitation).

The minimum temperatures will be between (3-8°C) mostly everywhere, with values close to 0°C in Wales, northern England and highlands. The maximum temperatures will decrease, with values between (4-10°C) everywhere (with highest values observed in N.W. Scotland and Cornwall).

Finally, the winds will be easterly, moderate on the English channel and east of England.

Europe: First cold wave of the season

If we look at the minimum temperatures observed this morning in Europe  (Figure1), it is clear how the coldwave has reached, from Russia/Ukraine, the Balkans, Central Europe and Northern Italy.

The lowest values are observed between Ukraine and Russia (-10/-12°C) and between Germany and Poland (-6/-8 °C). Temperatures close to (or slightly below zero) are observed also in eastern France, Po valley and Balkans.

The cold air will move westward during the day towards the UK and the Atlantic, instead still mild conditions are expected in Spain, Portugal, southern Italy and Greece. To notice how Scandinavia and Iceland, but also the Baltic states see very mild conditions (compare with the observed average for these areas), with 10-12°C observed in Iceland.

Figure1. Minimum temperatures in Europe today 18/11/2018 (Meteociel)

The mild conditions in Northern Europe are explained by the high-pressure system positioned over Scandinavia (Figure2), which causes cold air (Continental) from Russia to move towards the west and mild (Tropical) air from the low-mid Atlantic to move towards Iceland and Scandinavia. This condition should last for other 3/4 days.

Figure2. Synoptic condition this morning (18/11/2018) (Met Office).

Regarding the weather conditions (Figure3), bright conditions are observed in Central Europe and in the UK, instead more clouds with rainfall/ snow between Poland, Belarus and Russia due to the occluded front moving southwards (Figure2). Rainfall is observed also in south-east Europe (mainly Greece) and southern Italy. Finally, a long band of clouds is positioned on the Atlantic, from Iceland to Spain. This is the area between the continental (and drier) air coming from the east and the warmer (and moist) air on the Atlantic. This is causing some rainfall between Spain and Portugal and overcast conditions west of Ireland.

Figure3. Europe satellite image 10 UTC (Sat24).

UK WEATHER FORECAST 18/11/2018

The easterly winds have caused bright skies and cooler temperatures especially in England, and on Sunday the situation will be similar, with high pressure over Scandinavia and easterlies over Central Europe and the UK (Figure1).

Figure1. Synoptic chart for Sunday afternoon (Met Office).

Sunny conditions with low humidity will last during the whole day, with no clouds mostly everywhere, but in Scotland, though with no rain.

Temperatures will decrease especially in England, instead Scotland will be still mild. Minimum temperatures will be between (3-7 °C) mostly everywhere, with some values close to zero in some low areas in England and Wales. The maximum will be between (7-11 °C) mostly everywhere, still possible 12-13 °C in western Scotland, north Wales and Northern Ireland.

Finally, the winds will be easterly especially in England and Wales (moderate on the English Channel) and south-easterly in Scotland.

UK weather morning 17/11/2018

The easterly winds have started blowing since last night, and as we can see from the satellite image comparison between this morning and yesterday (Figure1) the weather conditions have changed especially in England.

We can see how the fog and low clouds of yesterday, which were covering most of the country, have now reduced, with drier and cooler conditions. By the end of the day, brighter conditions are expected also in Scotland and Northern Ireland and the winds  will be easterly mostly everywhere.


Figure1. Satellite image of this morning 12 UTC (top) and yesterday (bottom). (Sat24)

Italy: First cold spell of the season

Finally, the first cold spell of the season is reaching the Italian Peninsula.  As we can see in Figure1, easterly winds (Bora, Grecale) coming from the Balkans are blowing over the Adriatic sea, reducing the humidity and causing clear skies in the Po valley. However, these winds are causing the stau effect in Piemonte and Emilia Romagna, where overcast conditions occur. This is happening also along the peninsula, with more clouds on the east coast and bright conditions on the west.

Figure1. Satellite image of this late morning (Sat24).

The cold spell is causing (and will cause) a decrease in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with snow showers especially on the Appennines (low-medium height) and bright (but chilly) conditions elsewhere. The temperatures will plummet especially in the North, after weeks of mild conditions, with minimum values probably observed between next Monday and Tuesday. In Figure2 is shown the comparison between the actual temperatures and the situation observed 24 hours ago (Friday).

It is clear how the main variation is observed in the Alps, Adriatic coast and Sardinia (decrease in 4-6 °C in 24 hours).

Figure2. Comparison temperatures recorded at 12 UTC on Saturday and Friday (Meteociel).

UK WEATHER FORECAST 17/11/2018

The weather today has been foggy and cloudy for many, though with no rainfall. However, from tomorrow the weather will change, with brighter skies, less humidity and cooler temperatures especially in England.

This is caused by a colder air mass (continental) coming from eastern Europe/Russia which will lead to a decrease in  temperature in both central-eastern Europe and north Mediterranean region. The UK will be set between the milder air on the west positioned on the Atlantic and Spain, and the colder air coming from the east (Figure1). In fact the winds will blow from the east especially in England, instead they will be still southerly over Scotland.

Figure1. Synoptic chart for tomorrow afternoon (Met Office).

The change in the wind will cause less clouds mostly everywhere, especially from late morning. Only in Scotland and Northern Ireland, overcast conditions might be still possible in the afternoon, though with no rain.

The temperatures will decrease, with minimum values observed during late evening especially on the west (Wales, Cornwall) and Scotland/Northern Ireland. In the morning values between (5-12°C) everywhere, with cooler values on the east of England. The maximum temperatures will decrease slightly as well with values between (8-12°C) mostly everywhere.

Finally, the winds will be mostly easterly in England (moderate in the English Channel), instead still southerly/south-easterly in Scotland and Northern Ireland.