UK weather morning 17/11/2018

The easterly winds have started blowing since last night, and as we can see from the satellite image comparison between this morning and yesterday (Figure1) the weather conditions have changed especially in England.

We can see how the fog and low clouds of yesterday, which were covering most of the country, have now reduced, with drier and cooler conditions. By the end of the day, brighter conditions are expected also in Scotland and Northern Ireland and the winds  will be easterly mostly everywhere.


Figure1. Satellite image of this morning 12 UTC (top) and yesterday (bottom). (Sat24)

Italy: First cold spell of the season

Finally, the first cold spell of the season is reaching the Italian Peninsula.  As we can see in Figure1, easterly winds (Bora, Grecale) coming from the Balkans are blowing over the Adriatic sea, reducing the humidity and causing clear skies in the Po valley. However, these winds are causing the stau effect in Piemonte and Emilia Romagna, where overcast conditions occur. This is happening also along the peninsula, with more clouds on the east coast and bright conditions on the west.

Figure1. Satellite image of this late morning (Sat24).

The cold spell is causing (and will cause) a decrease in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with snow showers especially on the Appennines (low-medium height) and bright (but chilly) conditions elsewhere. The temperatures will plummet especially in the North, after weeks of mild conditions, with minimum values probably observed between next Monday and Tuesday. In Figure2 is shown the comparison between the actual temperatures and the situation observed 24 hours ago (Friday).

It is clear how the main variation is observed in the Alps, Adriatic coast and Sardinia (decrease in 4-6 °C in 24 hours).

Figure2. Comparison temperatures recorded at 12 UTC on Saturday and Friday (Meteociel).

UK WEATHER FORECAST 17/11/2018

The weather today has been foggy and cloudy for many, though with no rainfall. However, from tomorrow the weather will change, with brighter skies, less humidity and cooler temperatures especially in England.

This is caused by a colder air mass (continental) coming from eastern Europe/Russia which will lead to a decrease in  temperature in both central-eastern Europe and north Mediterranean region. The UK will be set between the milder air on the west positioned on the Atlantic and Spain, and the colder air coming from the east (Figure1). In fact the winds will blow from the east especially in England, instead they will be still southerly over Scotland.

Figure1. Synoptic chart for tomorrow afternoon (Met Office).

The change in the wind will cause less clouds mostly everywhere, especially from late morning. Only in Scotland and Northern Ireland, overcast conditions might be still possible in the afternoon, though with no rain.

The temperatures will decrease, with minimum values observed during late evening especially on the west (Wales, Cornwall) and Scotland/Northern Ireland. In the morning values between (5-12°C) everywhere, with cooler values on the east of England. The maximum temperatures will decrease slightly as well with values between (8-12°C) mostly everywhere.

Finally, the winds will be mostly easterly in England (moderate in the English Channel), instead still southerly/south-easterly in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

October 2018 analysis S.E. England

Using the data from Heathrow airport (1950-2018, Met Office), I have tried to sum up the analysis on both minimum, maximum temperatures, number of days with air frost and cumulative rainfall during October 2018 and compared with the average 1971-2000 (Figure1).


Figure1.October average max and min temperatures (top ), days with air frost (bottom left) and cumulative rainfall (bottom right) in the period 1950-2018 recorded at Heathrow Airport.

Both October 2018 minimum and maximum mean temperatures (8.50/16.50 °C) are slightly above the 30 years average (8.17/15.70 °C), especially the maximum values. This is due to the mild temperatures observed in the first two decades, which were ‘counterbalanced’ by the cold spell occurred during the last decade which has caused a day of air frost (the first one after 7 years, thus after 2010).

Regarding the rainfall, the total cumulative precipitation observed (61 mm) is slightly above the monthly mean (60 mm) and it occurred mainly in the second decade.

References:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt 

UK WEATHER FORECAST 16/11/2018

The weather today has been mild and not rainy for many, especially in England, though low clouds and fog have settled for most of the day in the south (Figure1). This is due to the high pressure still positioned over the continent which causes light winds and foggy conditions in the lower areas. In Scotland and Northern Ireland instead, more clouds and some showers have occurred during the day, though with still mild conditions due to the Tropical air mass coming from the south.

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Figure1. Satellite image of this afternoon (Sat24)

Regarding the weather for Friday, still mild and bright conditions are expected mostly everywhere (Figure2).

Figure2. Synoptic chart for Friday afternoon (Met Office).

During the night possible showers are expected on Western Scotland and Northern England, though localized, instead bright conditions elsewhere, though with some fog and low clouds on southern England and Wales.

In the morning sunny on the east of England, some low clouds and fog on the west and in Wales. Overcast conditions in Scotland and Norther Ireland. During the afternoon, few showers are expected in Scotland, still localized, instead bright conditions elsewhere, but with still possible fog and low clouds in Wales and Central England. During the evening, brighter skies in Scotland, and some clouds between Wales and England.

The temperatures will be still above the average, with minimum values between (5-10°C) in Scotland and Northern Ireland, (6-13°C) in Wales and England. The maximum temperatures will be between (10-15 °C) mostly everywhere. In the evening, slight decrease in temperature on the east of England (8-10°C).

The winds will be light, from the south, though they will start turning south-easterly during the evening (this will cause a slight decrease in temperature on the east of England).

UK WEATHER FORECAST 15/11/2018

On Wednesday afternoon the weather has been mild and bright for many in England, instead more cloudy with some showers in the north (Fig1).

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Figure1. Satellite image during Wednesday afternoon (Sat24).

The weather on Thursday is going to become settled mostly everywhere, with clouds and rain moving north eastward towards the North Atlantic along the high pressure system still positioned over the continent. Thus bright and mild conditions are expected over the UK with still Tropical air mass coming from the south (Fig2).

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Figure2. Synoptic chart for Thurdsday afternoon (Met Office).

In more detail, during the night some showers are expected in Northern Ireland and Western Scotland and they will continue also in the morning; partly cloudy or sunny elsewhere (some fog possible in England and Wales, especially in lower areas). In the afternoon some showers possible on western Scotland, Northern Ireland moving eastward towards eastern Scotland, Irish Channel and Northern England by late afternoon. During the evening some showers are still possible in Scotland and Northern England, instead bright conditions elsewhere.

The temperatures will be still above the average, with minimum values between (8-13°C) everywhere; the maximum values will slightly decrease in Scoltand (10-14°C) and increase in England and Wales (12-15°C, possible 16/17°C in some areas in southern England).

The winds will be light, mostly southerly, with some moderate winds only on western Scotland (night and evening) and Irish channel (night and early morning).

UK WEATHER FORECAST 14/11/2018

The weather is going to be the same as during Tuesday, with setteld conditions especially over England, instead overcast and some rainy conditions are expected over Wales, Scotland and Norther Ireland. However, the tropical maritime air mass is still causing mild conditions everywhere, with both minimum and maximum values above the average. In Fig1 is shown the satellite image of Tuesday afternoon. We can see how England has bright skies, instead Northern Ireland, Western Scotland and Wales see overcast conditions. However, this system will move north-eastward along the high pressure positioned over the Continent, thus it won’t affect the weather for many in the UK. In Figure2 is shown the synoptic chart for Wednesday.

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Figure1. Satellite observation Tuesday afternoon (Sat24).

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Figure2. Synoptic chart for Wednesday afternoon (MetOffice).

During the night showers are expected moving from Ireland towards Wales, Northern England and Scotland. However, only on western Scotland moderate rainfall is expected. In the morning, rainfall is moving north, with some showers still possible on Northern Wales and England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, bright conditions in the south. In the afternoon showers are expected only on Scotland and Northern Ireland, becoming less frequent by evening. Sunny, or partly cloudy, elsewhere.

The minimum temperatures will be everywhere between (8-13°C), instead the maximum will increase with values (11-15°C), though possible 15-17°C in north-eastern Scotland due to the winds blowing northward from the highlands (adiabatic effect).

Finally, the winds will be mostly southerly/south-westerly, light over England and Wales, instead moderate in Scotland and Northern Ireland and Irish Channel during all the day.