Early Spring over Europe

Sat Imagery Europe 31/01/2020
Figure 1. Sat Imagery Europe 31/01/2020

Today’s satellite image (Figure 1) shows widespread clouds over the continent. This is caused by a Tropical Maritime air advection (TM) along the N flank of a High over Spain. All the moisture and warm air is pushed over the Mediterranean region and central Europe. Meanwhile, a deep low over the Atlantic brings unsettled and windy weather across the British Isles. On the E side of the continent cold air flows S from Siberia, though mitigated as it reaches E Europe/Russia.

The temperatures observed at 12UTC today (Figure 2) are significantly above the climatological average for this time of the year across most of the continent.

Temperature observed in Europe at 12UTC 31/01/2020
Figure 2. Temperature observed in Europe at 12UTC 31/01/2020

Indeed, temperatures between 10/15°C are observed over the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Iberian Peninsula (here with peaks of 20/22°C along the E coast). Also in the Balkans and Greece temperature are very mild (between 15/20°C in S Greece).

Only in Russia and Central/N Scandinavia wintry conditions are observed, with values below freezing. However, these temperatures are still ‘mild’ compared with the climatology (e.g. in Moscow 0°C, but it should be -9/-4°C).

The next few days will see a further increase in temperature over all W Europe, with risk of some record-breaking values in France/Spain/Italy (possible peaks above 20°C) in some areas. This is caused by a northward shift of the Jet Stream over W Europe combined with the strengthen of the High over Iberia. Only from next week, the Jet Stream will push S towards central Europe causing a drop in temperatures (but there is still some uncertainty about its effects on a local scale).

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edof93

I am Edoardo and I am passionate about weather analysis and forecasing. I would like to share my knowledge and to learn more with others (both International and Italian community).

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