Christmas in Europe: where could it be ‘white’?

This morning (Figure1) the weather condition hasn’t changed from the weekend, with a strong temperature gradient between northern- eastern Europe and western-southern Europe. Values well below 0 °C are observed in Scandinavia, Russia and between Romania and the Baltic region, with peaks below -20 °C between Finland and Russia.

Meanwhile, in western Europe and in the Mediterranean region (where a high-pressure ridge is setting from Spain towards N. Atlantic) temperatures are above 10 °C, with peaks of 14-16 °C in Sardinia, southern France and Cyprus. To notice that the high-pressure ridge is causing mild conditions also in Iceland, with observed values well above 0 °C.

Regarding the precipitation, snow at low-levels/plains is observed between Norway and Sweden (mainly in the mainland) and between Poland and the Baltic countries. Some snow (showers) are observed also in the Alpine region and between Czech Republic and Romania (on the Tatra and Carpathians mountains).

The unsettled weather between the Alpine region and E. Europe is due to a cold front related to a low-pressure system moving southward from the Baltic region towards the Balkans. The pressure difference between central Europe and the Mediterranean region is causing strong winds in the Alpine region leading to the fohn effect in N.W. Italy (Figure2); this is leading to drier and milder conditions compared with the previous days.

Figure1. Minimum temperatures observed this morning in Europe (source: Meteociel).
Figure2. Satellite imagery of this morning (10.00 UTC). I have coloured in orange Tropical Maritime air (TM), in blue polar continental (PC) and in red the fohn effect in the Alpine region (notice the ‘wall’ of clouds in N.W. Italy). (source: Sat24).

Regarding the weather for Christmas day, the high-pressure ridge will set between France and the UK, leading the cold air mass (from Scandinavia and the Baltic region) to move southwards towards the Balkans and the E. Mediterranean region.

Thus, tomorrow the weather conditions will see warm temperatures in western Europe (especially between Spain and France and in Ireland), with maximum values above 10 °C (peaks of 15-18 °C are expected in S. Spain). Only between N. France, English Channel and Belgium (where fog/low clouds are possible) lower temperatures are expected.

Instead, moving eastward, the cold air will cause a decrease in temperatures in the Alpine region, in Italy (especially along the Adriatic coast) and E. Europe. However, the lowest temperatures are expected mainly in the Balkans, with maximum values close or below 0 °C between Romania, Bulgaria and Serbia. Also in Greece will be cold, with values below 10 °C mostly everywhere (except in Crete and Peloponnesus).

Most of the precipitation will occur this evening, when the cold front will be more active (and temperatures will still be slightly above 0 °C at low-levels), thus snow is expected mainly on the mountainous areas in E. Europe. However, during the night and tomorrow morning, the decrease in temperatures might lead to snow at low-levels/plains in the mainland between Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Serbia.

Finally, in Scandinavia, Baltic regions and Russia the weather conditions will still see low temperatures and some snow at low-levels/plains is expected between Poland, Belarus and Ukraine, as well as between Finland and N. Russia and in W. Norway.

Published by

edof93

I am Edoardo and I am passionate about weather analysis and forecasing. I would like to share my knowledge and to learn more with others (both International and Italian community).

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