November historical analysis in N.E. Italy

November 2018 is showing very mild temperatures in the N.E. of Italy, with only few days observing temperatures below average
 (see Italy: First cold spell of the season). It might be possible that the current November will be one of the warmest ever recorded (especially regarding the minimum temperatures), but before claiming that we need to wait few days still.

However, in the past (also quite recently) November has observed coldwaves with snow also in the Po valley (e.g. 2005, 2008). I have considered the temperature data from 1973 to 2017 from Treviso S. Angelo in Veneto. Unfortunately, some daily data are missed in few years, thus the monthly average is not completely exhaustive (especially for the years 2005 -2012 where I have used data from Treviso Istrana, which is only few miles from S. Angelo). The idea is to give a general overview of the historical temperatures in November in the Veneto plains.

In Figure1 is shown the monthly maximum and minimum temperatures average.

Figure1. Monthly average of max (red) and minimum (blue) temperatures in November. The dashed lines show the max and min averages in the period 1981-2010.

It is clear how the monthly average temperatures in the 00s have been only few times below the long term average 1981-2010 (4.6/12.7 °C). The warmest November occurred in 2014 , instead the coldest one in 1988 for both minimum and maximum values. The minimum temperatures, especially, tend to be higher than the long term average in several years during the 00s, with only 3 years observing lower values (2001, 2007 and 2011) (Figure2).

Figure2. Occurrence of years observing max (red) and min (blue) temperatures above the long term average (equal or above +0.5 °C from the long term average).

It is interesting to notice how the frequency of mild temperatures in November is increasing from the end of the 90s, instead in the 70s and 80s only few years observed mild temperatures in November.

If we consider the top and bottom 10% of both the minimum and maximum temperature distribution (thus the coldest and warmest November), the analysis has shown that the coldest November (the lower 10% of the distribution) occurred mainly in the 80s, and no one is observed after 1993. Instead the top 10%, thus the mildest November, is observed only in the 00s, which explain what found in Figure2. In conclusion, it seems that there is a (positive) shift in both maximum and minimum temperatures in November, with the last two decades observing the highest values.

References:

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edof93

I am Edoardo and I am passionate about weather analysis and forecasing. I would like to share my knowledge and to learn more with others (both International and Italian community).

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